To understand the importance of CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal), we must be aware of its capacity to capture atmospheric . The seventh chapter of “The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, 3rd Edition” report explains how much we are removing today from the atmosphere with CDR, how it is distributed between conventional and novel methods, and why current levels are below what would be needed.
Definition and Methodological Approach
The chapter is based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) definition of CDR: CDR refers to human activities capturing from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. Based on this definition, the work focuses on gross removals—that is, the annual flow of transferring from the atmosphere to a durable store through human action, without mixing into that same figure the life-cycle emissions of infrastructure or inputs, which are accounted for in other sectors. For conventional CDR linked to land use, global carbon budget models and aggregated national inventory data are used; for novel CDR, project databases, industry reports, and initiative registries are employed.
Some gray areas where net removal is unclear are excluded from the calculation, such as BECCS or DACCS chains utilizing for enhanced oil recovery, and the passive recarbonation of cement. Conversely, afforestation on abandoned agricultural land is included as part of afforestation, reforestation, and forest management activities.
Global carbon budget models allow for separating the absorption share attributable to land-use changes and management from additional absorption due to environmental changes (such as fertilization) and assigning only the former to CDR. Summing removals from the atmosphere and certain carbon transfers between durable stores, total conventional CDR activity sits around 2,530 per year.
Novel CDR: Current Activity and Climate Quality
In contrast, novel CDR is in a very nascent phase. The chapter estimates that it currently removes about 2 per year, primarily originating from biochar, some BECCS projects, small DACCS installations, and early enhanced weathering and mineralization initiatives in products. Although this figure is very small, novel CDR has grown at rapid rates, similar to those of other emerging technologies, but from such a low starting point that its global contribution remains marginal.
The report also explores the difference between gross removal and net removal in these methods, showing that the real climate value heavily depends on the carbon intensity of the energy used and the design of the value chain. In BECCS and DACCS, for instance, the proportion of actually removed can vary widely depending on conditions, whereas in biochar, net removals are usually high but still depend on how it is produced and applied.
Geographic Distribution and Pipeline up to 2030
Current conventional CDR removals are concentrated in a few large economies, especially China, the United States, the European Union, Brazil, and Russia, in line with the extent of their forests and agricultural lands and their management practices. Novel CDR is concentrated mostly in Europe and North America, where the majority of biochar, BECCS, DACCS, and enhanced weathering projects are located.
Looking to the immediate future, the chapter analyzes the novel CDR project pipeline. With data from facilities under construction and announced projects, it estimates that capacity could grow from the current 2 per year to around 8.4 per year in 2030. However, higher-ambition scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C require on the order of 70 per year of novel CDR in 2030, meaning the current pipeline falls very short. Even when summing announced corporate ambitions, which point to about 42 per year, a significant gap would remain, and furthermore, not all of those announcements materialize.
Necessary Progress
The chapter concludes that conventional CDR currently provides almost all removals and will remain essential, but novel CDR must scale much faster to approach pathways compatible with 1.5°C. It warns that relying on extreme increases in novel CDR without addressing sustainability, governance, and social acceptance risks could lead to relying on removal levels that overshoot land, water, energy, and ecosystem usage limits. Overall, the message is that current removals, while significant, are far from what would be necessary in the medium term, and the 2026–2030 decade will be critical in defining how much and how CDR grows, especially novel CDR.
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